鄒重璂醫生日前接受了蘋果日報有關的訪問。 詳細報導可 <按此> 瀏覽。 ***************** 源於大量免檢疫人士來港的新一波疫情，成港府支持推動全民檢測的理據，因此如何正確評估武漢肺炎的嚴重程度，亦成不少人爭論的話題。經常在社交平台推廣醫學科普教育的天一醫療機構醫務總監鄒重璂認為，可以從檢測數據、超額死亡及與流感比較三個範疇去評估，強調醫生及科學家職責是羅列事實，讓公眾獲悉足夠資訊，「再去決定自己應該要幾驚。」 解讀檢測 先明感染率敏感度特異性 政府屢次重申，全民檢測是為找出社區中的隱形個案。而按衞生防護中心公佈的數據，上月本地接受病毒檢測共297,438次，確診個案為2,066字，佔約0.7%，情況似乎不算嚴重。 現時唯一已知真正「全民檢測」為鑽石公主號郵輪，鄒重璂指「鑽石公主號困住咁耐都係五個有一個，無嘢差得過佢」，套用在「重災區香港」，上月應該能找出59,488確診個案，但實際數字遠遠低於這個估算。 那會否是測試不夠準確？鄒重璂稱要讀懂結果，首先要知道現時PCR病毒測試的兩個標準：敏感度（sensitivity）和特異性（specificity）。前者是找出生病病人的機會，「睇返文獻而家敏感度大約三成至六成半」；後者則是無染病者驗出陰性的機會，代表測試的可靠程度。《蘋果》曾分別向食衞局、衞生署及醫管局查詢所使用測試的兩項數值，但相關部門未能提供。 既然無正式數據，鄒重璂就試圖以數字模型推算。他假設香港真的如鑽石公主號般嚴重，有兩成人中招，而所採用的測試亦相當準確，分別有70%敏感度及99%特異性。計算結果預期，檢測會找出41,642名真陽性病人，另有2,38
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